This website is a follow-up to the original article entitled, "Markedly Lower Rates of Coronavirus Infection and Fatality in Malaria-Endemic Regions - A Clue to Treatment?". That article, published about May 1, 2020, sets forth crossover prophylaxis as a hypothesis for the superior COVID outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. It can be found here at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3586954. This page illustrates the profound surprise experienced by medical and scientific experts as the pandemic unfolded and it was seen how these malaria-endemic countries of sub-Saharan Africa have superior clinical outcomes compared to the U.S. and western Europe.


There is No Dispute that Life in Africa Presents Unimaginable Challenges for Many Residents.

Nothing on this website should be understood to trivialize the risk and the poverty associated with living in sub-Saharan Africa. For many if not most living on the African continent, life is unimaginably difficult. The inhabitants of these six countries suffer from low incomes and high incidence of disease, especially by definition, malaria. This results in shortened lifespans for many of these people. Nothing on this website or in the underlying papers should ever be construed to minimize these facts. However, the data released by these countries themselves and the world agencies who monitor such data indicate that, in the context of the COVID pandemic, these six African countries have superior clinical outcomes expressed as extremely low COVID fatality rates.

As demonstrated elsewhere on this website, the available data indicate that even when adjusted for age, these six malaria-endemic countries of sub-Saharan Africa have COVID fatality rates which are 97% less than the industrialized West. Residents of the U.S. and western Europe are about thirty times more likely to die of coronavirus than the inhabitants of these identified African countries. This profound disparity has persisted throughout the course of the pandemic.



Superior Outcomes Should Be the Result of Best Practices.

The express purpose of this website is to ascertain the reasons for the superior clinical COVID outcomes and identify the best medical practices utilized in these sub-Saharan Africa countries. A further purpose of this website is to challenge world health leaders to investigate the African's best practices and to implement them throughout the world. It appears that these countries of sub-Saharan Africa have a great gift to offer the world - if the experts will listen.

Over the past fifty years, largely due to the work of Dr. Archie Cochrane, our health care is supposed to be increasingly evidence-based, i.e. best outcomes are the results of best practices and best practices will lead to better outcomes. While many frontline doctors, nurses, and other health workers served heroically and sacrificially, our health care systems and leaders have largely failed us. Further evidence of the failure of our health care systems and leaders can be found here in the adjacent sections entitled Turmoil and Treatment.

One way the experts got it wrong and failed to lead the world to the best outcomes in the COVID pandemic was in their assessment of COVID's impact on Africa and their ongoing failure to recognize Africa's success and superior outcomes. Experts predicted just the opposite of the current reality. Experts predicted catastrophic clinical outcomes in Africa. Experts are surprised at how wrong they were. Here below, are some examples of the experts' predictions and their subsequent surprise.



Dire Warnings of Great Catastrophe for Africa

On Feb. 26, 2020, U.S. News and World Reports described Africa’s "Nightmare Scenario," claiming that "Coronavirus Could Devastate Africa." https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-02-26/commentary-coronavirus-has-potential-to-devastate-africa.

On February 27, 2020, the Lancet published an article portending the "Looming threat of COVID-19 infection in Africa," urging us to "act collectively, and fast." https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30464-5.

On March 18, 2020, the Washington Post ran an article warning that "The coronavirus could devastate Africa," because "the continent’s governments are not well-prepared to fight a pandemic." https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/18/coronavirus-africa/.

On March 20, 2020, The Financial Times published an article warning that in the coronavirus, "Africa faces a catastrophe to dwarf all others." https://www.ft.com/content/d8891a18-6fbf-4462-9b9c-4aefe20733e9.

On March 29, 2020, the Associated Press published, "In Somalia, coronavirus goes from fairy tale to nightmare." https://apnews.com/article/b23baf8f62dfda03b6ef73777175e8d9.

Citing U.K. experts, on April 8, 2020, the Sun newspaper warned that "Africa faces devastating collapse if the coronavirus is not controlled on the continent . . ." https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11355793/africa-collapse-coronavirus-not-controlled-un/.

Citing a report by the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa, on April 17, 2020 ABC News stated that, "any of the scenarios would overwhelm Africa's largely fragile and underfunded health systems" and lead to at least 300,000 and "as many as 3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections." https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/coronavirus/africa-could-see-300-000-coronavirus-deaths-this-year.

On April 18, 2020, and article in the New York Times described how the coronavirus pandemic could be catastrophic in Africa countries with "struggling health systems," point out that ten African countries have "no ventilators" at all. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/africa/africa-coronavirus-ventilators.html.

On Apr 21, 2020, Vox Media published, "The African continent is extremely vulnerable to a large-scale coronavirus outbreak . . ." https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21225002/coronavirus-africa-cases-death-food-debt-economy.



Experts Surprised at the Good COVID Outcomes in Africa.

"Africa has defied the covid-19 nightmare scenarios. We shouldn't be surprised."https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/22/africa-has-defied-covid-19-nightmare-scenarios-we-shouldnt-be-surprised/. Although the Washington Post claims, in hindsight to not be surprised, in reality, they and other experts were, in fact, very surprised.

On September 2, 2020, the BBC reported: "Coronavirus in South Africa: Scientists explore surprise theory for low death rate." The BBC stated the "infection and death rates in many African countries have turned out to be much lower than initially feared." "In the early stages of the pandemic, experts across Africa - echoed by many leaders - appeared to agree that the continent faced a severe threat from the virus." "'I thought we were heading towards a disaster, a complete meltdown,' said Professor Shabir Madhi." "Even the most optimistic modelling and predictions showed, for example, that South Africa's hospitals - and the continent's most developed health system - would be quickly overwhelmed." "And yet, today South Africa is emerging from its first wave of infections with a Covid-19 death rate roughly seven times lower than Britain's." www.bbc.com > news > world-africa-53998374.

That same BBC article from September 2, 2020, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the head of South Africa's ministerial advisory team, asserted the conventional wisdom: "If you don't have the ability to social distance, the virus spreads." Professor Karim went on to say, "Most African countries don't have a peak. I don't understand why. I'm completely at sea." Professor Karim seems surprised.

On September 23 2020, the Spanish magazine Atalayar reported, "COVID-19 has not devastated Africa to the surprise of many, why?" "There was speculation of a high incidence of the coronavirus on the African continent, but this has not been the case so far." When it was already clear that COVID-19 would be a global pandemic, public health experts warned of the devastating effect it would have on Africa, a forecast that has not materialized and that many scientists are still trying to explain. Like so many others, these authors were surprised. https://atalayar.com/en/content/covid-19-has-not-devastated-africa-surprise-many-why.



Conclusion

Thus far, there is considerable evidence that our healthcare experts got it wrong in terms of COVID's impact on Africa. The reality in Africa is just the opposite of that predicted by the experts. Experts predicted catastrophic clinical outcomes in Africa. This has simply not occurred. Experts were surprised.

What does the future hold for Africa in this COVID pandemic? Of course, no one knows for sure. The fact is, that for the past nine months, the COVID fatality rates in the six countries studied has been about 97% less than in the U.S. and Europe. The experts may be forgiven for failing to initially recognize that the use of Malarone (atovaquone and proguanil) by travelers prevented the seeding of coronavirus into the six countries by those arriving travelers. It is possible that the incidence of coronavirus infections and fatalities in the six countries may pick as there is a shift to person to person transmission. With infections and fatalities in these six countries so far behind, six months into this pandemic, it is hard to imagine that these six countries will every see fatality rates approaching those seen in the West. There are those that warn of other, noninfectious, primarily economic harms likely to befall Africa as a result of the pandemic. No doubt some of this will occur and it may be serious. Discussion of these potential effects is beyond the scope of this website.

The issue presented here on this website is that, these countries' own data and the data of world experts demonstrates that these six, malaria-endemic, sub-Saharan African countries have vastly superior COVID outcomes than the U.S. and the industrialized West. Experts' continued failure to recognized this fact cannot be forgiven. Experts' continued failure to recognize the beneficial effect of Malarone and other related drugs like hydroxychloroquine cannot be forgiven. It is difficult to consider this continued failure to recognize the superior clinical outcomes in Africa month after month short of labeling it as bias. Experts' continued failure to acknowledge the superior COVID outcomes in Africa cannot be forgiven.

This website continues to be updated.